Metro Migration: Where Are We Moving?

| Posted: February 27th, 2012

Migration patterns across the United States have changed a great deal over the past decade as America’s metropolitan areas have changed. Our new interactive map looks at migration across our top 100 metros over time (click image below for map).

Source: Urban Institute analysis of IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) data

A first look at overall migration from 2004 to 2010 shows a steady flow of people moving from the dense urban centers of the Rust Belt and the Northeast to the urban sprawl of the Southeast and Southwest. Larger metros—New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago—saw more people move out than move in over this period, and some of the biggest gainers were Austin, Las Vegas, Raleigh, Portland, and most of Florida.

A closer look by year (accomplished by dragging the slider at the top of the map) reveals that the majority of this migration occurred between 2004 and 2008, before the housing market crash. The relocation pattern has leveled out since then, and the total number of moves has dropped significantly as a result of the recession. However, a large influx of people has continued to move to Raleigh and Austin, despite the economic downturn.

The map also shows that when most people move, they move nearby (use your mouse to hover over metros on the map). The top three metros that fed Portland’s migration, for example, are Seattle, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, which make up about 10 percent of total inflows. Exceptions to this rule include Florida metros such as Orlando and Tampa, which receive a disproportionate number of incoming residents—often relocating retirees—from New York.

What could be spurring these changes to warmer, less dense metropolitan areas? Aside from the Florida metros I just mentioned, many metros with the largest net inflows have large populations of young professionals, ages 25 to 34, who are going through a period of their lives when they are most likely to move. In other words, it seems as though young “echo boomers” are flocking to younger metros to live and work near others in their cohort.

This list of “younger” metros includes Austin (16.9 percent of the population between 25 and 34); Denver and Washington (15.3 percent); and Houston, Charleston, Las Vegas, and Portland (15.1 percent). The metro-wide average is 13.3 percent. In some metros, such as Austin, DC, Denver, and Charleston, these young professionals blend in with a large working-age population, while in others, such as Houston and Las Vegas, this younger cohort stands out, making up a large and significant part of the workforce.

To craft effective policies, we need to understand how nationwide transformations are affecting our local areas—and understanding how migration changes our cities and communities is one step in this direction.

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Where Are the Jobs?

| Posted: January 26th, 2012

Public concern about jobs and the economy has focused media and political attention on the job creation credentials of President Obama and his Republican contenders.

MetroTrends offers solid facts to inform this debate: which industries are gaining or losing jobs? Without these details, it’s difficult for policymakers to craft effective responses that strengthen metropolitan economies.

Our latest interactive map shows Current Employment Statistics data for October 2011. The highlights:

• Metropolitan jobs numbers categorized by industry
• Color coding to represent industry change since the recession
• Interactive mouse-over windows showing industry stats and trends
• A “compare metros” feature for users to craft their own analysis and stories
• Downloadable, ready-to-use datasets for each metro

The Top 100 Metros' Job Creation in All Industries (click image for interactive map)

Source: Urban Institute analysis of BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) Data

Since the Great Recession ended in June 2009, the United States has gained about 1.2 million jobs, mostly in the services sector. Of the top 100 metros, 59 have added jobs overall, while 41 have lost jobs.

The top 10 job-creating metros account for 38.5% of net U.S. job growth and include Houston (7.2%), Dallas (6.1%), Boston (6.0%), Phoenix (3.5%), Detroit (3.1%), Miami (3.0%), Nashville (2.7%), Pittsburgh (2.5%), Washington DC (2.2%), and San Jose (2.1%).

In all these metros, the service sector is the main source of job growth.  For example, most of Houston’s gains have come from increases in both professional and business services and education and health services. Dallas has gained many jobs in the same two fields, compensating for manufacturing sector losses.  Boston’s growth stems mainly from large increases in education and health services jobs. And in DC, government, professional and business services, and education and health services jobs have offset losses in goods producing, leisure and hospitality, and information jobs.

Every metro tells a unique story that varies over time. By understanding job trends both within and among metros and industries, policymakers and local stakeholders have a strong foundation for building sound job-creation strategies going forward.

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Northeast and Midwest Have Fared Best Since Recession

| Posted: September 21st, 2011

President Obama’s new job-creation proposals have a national scope.  Fine and good.  But which areas of the country need the prescribed help most?  Recent MetroTrends analysis indicates that metros in the Midwest and Northeast have fared the best while metros in states hit hardest by the housing crisis-- such as Florida, Nevada, and California-- have suffered the most in the Great Recession.

To improve understanding of these changes geographically and over time, MetroTrends has created interactive visualizations based on data from our nation’s metropolitan areas.  Like the first, pictured here, each visualization will allow users to digest data in seconds, explore individual metro-level trends with the click of a mouse, and download data in an easy-to-use format for further analysis.

Click the image below to begin exploring.

Two years after the recession officially ended, unemployment has remained relatively unchanged in 66 of the top 100 metros, improved in 23, and worsened in 11.  While metro areas like Fresno, El Paso, and Miami have seen unemployment rates rise, a surprising number of metros resemble Cleveland and Detroit, where unemployment has fallen.

Of course, each metropolitan area has a unique story.  But looking more closely at the metropolitan areas that have fared best in hard times should help our leaders craft policy that helps the overwhelming number of metros where high unemployment still exists.

We invite you to explore the data to uncover critical insights and interesting national, regional, and local stories.

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